A recent NORC poll has shed light on an intriguing political development in the Democratic Party. With President Biden’s potential withdrawal from the 2024 race, Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as a frontrunner, garnering significant support from party members. The survey, conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, reveals that 80% of Democrats are satisfied with Harris stepping into a leadership role during Biden’s absence.
This shift in the Democratic landscape has far-reaching implications for the upcoming presidential election. The poll results suggest a growing unity within the party behind Harris, despite previous concerns about her popularity. As the political scene continues to evolve, Harris’s strengths and potential as a candidate are coming into sharper focus. However, challenges remain, both within the party and in the broader context of a general election, where she would likely face off against Republican contenders in a highly competitive race.
Harris’s Surge in Democratic Support
Vice President Kamala Harris has experienced a significant increase in approval among Democratic voters in recent months. The AP-NORC poll reveals that about 8 in 10 Democrats would be somewhat or very satisfied if Harris became the Democratic nominee for president . This marks a substantial shift from earlier polls, where only about 4 in 10 Democrats expressed satisfaction with Biden as the likely nominee .
Comparison with Biden’s previous ratings
Harris’s approval rating among Democrats has risen to around 80%, up from the low 70s earlier in Biden’s term . This surge in popularity comes as Biden’s own approval rating has declined, particularly among independent voters . In head-to-head matchups against former President Donald Trump, Harris has been performing at or slightly above Biden’s levels in most national surveys .
Demographic breakdown of support
Harris has seen strong support across various demographic groups within the Democratic Party. Among Black voters, she commands a significant advantage at 67%, while Trump trails at 22% . In the Hispanic demographic, Harris secures 54% support . Additionally, about 7 in 10 Black adults and about half of Hispanic adults would be satisfied with Harris as the Democratic nominee .
Reasons for increased satisfaction
Several factors have contributed to Harris’s rising popularity among Democrats. Her high-profile role in addressing issues like voting rights and the root causes of migration, as well as her efforts to promote the administration’s agenda on Capitol Hill, have resonated with voters . Moreover, Harris’s younger age and livelier style have helped restore enthusiasm among loyal Democrats, particularly in key swing states .
Key Factors Driving Harris’s Popularity
Fresh face in leadership
Kamala Harris has emerged as a fresh face in national leadership, generating significant enthusiasm among Democrats. As a 55-year-old senator from California, she brings a new perspective to the political landscape . Her personal story and background as the daughter of immigrants from Jamaica and India resonate with many voters, particularly those who value diversity and representation in government .
Perceived electability against Trump
Harris’s perceived electability against former President Donald Trump is seen as a major asset. Recent polls show Harris performing well in head-to-head matchups against Trump, with some surveys indicating a slight lead for Harris . Her ability to appeal to key demographic groups, including women, Black voters, and younger Americans, is viewed as a potential advantage in a general election .
Historic candidacy potential
The prospect of Harris becoming the first woman, first Black woman, and first person of South Asian descent to serve as president has generated excitement among Democrats . This historic potential has energized key constituencies within the party, with 88% of Democrats reporting being either “very enthusiastic” or “somewhat enthusiastic” about Harris’s candidacy . Her nomination represents a significant milestone in American politics, echoing the impact of Barack Obama’s historic candidacy in 2008 .
Challenges and Concerns for Harris
Republican perception
Despite her surge in Democratic support, Vice President Kamala Harris faces significant opposition from Republicans. GOP leaders have warned party members against using overtly racist and sexist attacks, recognizing the risks of running against a candidate who would be the first woman, first Black woman, and first person of South Asian descent to win the White House . However, Republicans have rolled out a list of attack lines, attempting to tie Harris to unpopular Biden policies and criticizing her handling of the economy and the Southern border .
General election prospects
In head-to-head matchups against former President Donald Trump, Harris has been performing at or slightly above Biden’s levels in most national surveys . However, she still faces challenges in a general election. A majority of U.S. adults believe Trump is more likely to win if he and Harris are the candidates, with about 9 in 10 Republicans saying Trump is more likely to become president, while only about 7 in 10 Democrats say that about Harris .
Addressing policy priorities
Harris will need to address key policy priorities to gain broader support. The economy remains a top concern for voters, especially undecided and lower-income individuals. Many voters feel their material conditions have worsened in recent years, despite positive economic indicators . To tackle this issue, Harris’s economic advisers have suggested prioritizing elements of the “care economy,” such as re-upping the Child Tax Credit and supporting small businesses .
Biden’s Withdrawal and Its Impact
President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race has sent shockwaves through the political landscape, dramatically altering the course of the upcoming election. This unexpected move has far-reaching implications for the Democratic Party and the nation as a whole.
Reasons for Biden’s decision
Biden’s decision to step aside came after careful consideration and consultation with his inner circle. The president felt increasingly isolated and frustrated as he faced mounting pressure from within his own party . Poll numbers were slipping, donors were fleeing, and party luminaries were pushing for his exit . Biden was also concerned about potentially becoming a scapegoat if Democrats faced significant losses in November .
Democratic party’s response
The Democratic Party has scrambled to respond to this sudden change. Party leaders are emphasizing the need for quick unification behind a new candidate . Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as a frontrunner, receiving endorsements from prominent figures such as former President Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton . Several Democratic governors, including Gavin Newsom of California and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, have also thrown their support behind Harris .
Public approval of the move
The public’s reaction to Biden’s withdrawal has been mixed. A recent AP-NORC poll found that [70% of Americans](https://apnews.com/article/poll-joe-biden-kamala-harris-donald-trump-1feb5ed3c2e29623ce3cec3565b487cd) believed Biden should drop out of the race . Among Democrats, nearly two-thirds supported his withdrawal . However, Biden’s decision has also injected uncertainty into global affairs, particularly concerning ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza .
Harris’s Emergence as the Democratic Frontrunner
Initial reaction from Democrats
Vice President Kamala Harris has quickly consolidated support among Democrats following President Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 race. About 8 in 10 Democrats report being somewhat or very satisfied with Harris as the Democratic nominee for president . This marks a significant shift from earlier polls, where only about 4 in 10 Democrats expressed satisfaction with Biden as the likely nominee . The rapid change in sentiment underscores how swiftly the party has united behind Harris as its standard-bearer.
Support across different demographics
Harris has garnered strong support across various demographic groups within the Democratic Party. Among Black voters, she commands a significant advantage at 67%, while Trump trails at 22% . In the Hispanic demographic, Harris secures 54% support . Additionally, about 7 in 10 Black adults and about half of Hispanic adults would be satisfied with Harris as the Democratic nominee . Harris is also faring better among younger voters, with about 60% support from voters under 30 .
Comparison to previous polls
The surge in support for Harris represents a marked improvement compared to earlier polls. In head-to-head matchups against former President Donald Trump, Harris is now performing at or slightly above Biden’s levels in most national surveys . A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Harris leading Trump 43% to 42%, albeit within the margin of error . This shift in polling data suggests that Harris has energized the Democratic base and potentially improved the party’s prospects in the upcoming election.
The Road Ahead for Harris
Campaign strategy
Vice President Kamala Harris faces a unique challenge as she steps into the role of the Democratic presidential nominee. With just over 100 days until the election, Harris needs to convince a majority of the public that she should be the next president of the United States . Her campaign strategy focuses on uniting and energizing the Democratic coalition, particularly targeting women, voters under 45, and people of color .
Recent polls show Harris has made significant gains among key demographic groups. Support for her candidacy has risen from 51% to 55% among women, 48% to 59% among 18 to 29-year-olds, and 47% to 60% among Hispanics . These numbers suggest that Harris’s appeal to young people, working-age women, and non-white voters has the potential to reshape the electoral map in crucial states .
Addressing Biden’s legacy
As Harris takes the reins of the Democratic campaign, she must balance her own vision with the accomplishments of the Biden administration. Biden’s aides believe he can help his chosen successor by using his platform to showcase economic policies that voters support and Republicans oppose . However, campaigning directly for Harris may be risky, given Biden’s low approval ratings .
Harris has already begun to address this challenge, praising Biden’s leadership while emphasizing her own strengths. At a recent gathering, she described Biden as “a leader with bold vision” who “cares about the future” . This approach allows Harris to build on Biden’s legacy while positioning herself as a fresh voice for the party.
Preparations for potential Trump matchup
As Harris prepares for a potential face-off with former President Donald Trump, her campaign is focusing on key battleground states. In Georgia, which Biden won by a narrow margin in 2020, Democrats are expressing new hopes of an expanded electoral map . The campaign argues that Harris’s appeal to key demographic groups has altered the dynamics in Georgia and similar states .
Recent polls show Harris pulling essentially even with Trump (Trump 48%, Harris 47%), a significant improvement from Biden’s previous 6-point deficit . Harris holds advantages over Trump in several key areas, including having the “right temperament for the presidency” (51% to 49%) and “being intelligent” (65% to 58%) . These positive impressions could be crucial in turning the current wave of excitement into a victory in November.
Shifting Democratic Landscape
Biden’s debate performance aftermath
President Biden’s debate performance sent shockwaves through the Democratic Party, causing widespread concern among party members. More than 4 in 10 Democrats, or 41%, believed the party should replace Biden as its presidential nominee . This sentiment extended to 37% of those who planned to vote for him . The aftermath of the debate led to panicked text messages and urgent questions about Biden’s future in the race .
Party’s quick pivot to Harris
Following Biden’s withdrawal, the Democratic Party swiftly rallied behind Vice President Kamala Harris. Within 48 hours, Harris had effectively cleared the Democratic field of serious rivals, secured support from more delegates than needed for the nomination, raised over $100 million, and delivered a stronger message against former President Donald Trump . The speed of this consolidation was reminiscent of how the party united behind Biden in 2020 .
Generational and demographic shifts in support
Harris’s emergence as the Democratic frontrunner has led to significant shifts in voter support. Among voters under 35, 1 in 10 remain undecided when given the choice between Harris and Trump . Harris has seen strong support across various demographic groups, with 67% support among Black voters and 54% among Hispanic voters . These shifts suggest a potential reshaping of the electoral map in crucial states .
Harris’s Strengths and Potential
Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as a dynamic and charismatic figure, offering several perceived advantages over President Biden. Her ability to connect with voters and energize the Democratic base has become increasingly apparent . Recent polls show that about 8 in 10 Democrats would be somewhat or very satisfied if Harris became the Democratic nominee for president, a significant increase from the 4 in 10 who expressed satisfaction with Biden as the likely nominee .
Appeal to key Democratic constituencies
Harris’s identity as a woman of color has proven to be a significant asset in appealing to crucial Democratic constituencies. About 7 in 10 Black adults and about half of Hispanic adults would be satisfied with Harris as the Democratic nominee, marking a substantial increase from earlier polls . Her candidacy has also resonated with younger voters, with around 4 in 10 adults under the age of 45 expressing satisfaction with Harris as the nominee, compared to just 17% for Biden .
Potential to energize the base
Harris’s strengths have presidential strategists hopeful about the party’s prospects in key battleground states. Her appeal has put Sun Belt states like Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia back in play, potentially benefiting Democratic Senate candidates in those regions . The Harris campaign has seen a surge in fundraising, raising $200 million in the week following Biden’s exit, with two-thirds coming from new donors . This influx of cash and enthusiasm has energized down-ballot races, with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee experiencing its best fundraising day of the cycle .
Challenges in the General Election
Trump’s base loyalty
Despite Harris’s growing support among Democrats, she faces a formidable challenge in Donald Trump’s loyal base. About 9 in 10 Republicans say Trump is more likely to become president, indicating a strong belief in his electability among his supporters . This unwavering support presents a significant hurdle for Harris to overcome in the general election.
Perceptions of electability
Public perception of Harris’s electability remains a concern. A majority of U.S. adults believe Trump is more likely to win if he and Harris are the candidates . Specifically, [56% of Americans think Trump would win, while only 40% believe Harris would emerge victorious](https://apnews.com/article/poll-joe-biden-kamala-harris-donald-trump-1feb5ed3c2e29623ce3cec3565b487cd) . This perception gap could impact voter turnout and enthusiasm for Harris’s campaign.
Addressing economic concerns
A key challenge for Harris is to effectively communicate the Biden-Harris administration’s economic record. Despite positive economic indicators, many Americans remain unhappy with the higher cost of living. Grocery prices have increased by 21% since Biden and Harris took office, while average apartment rents have climbed about 23% . Additionally, the surge in housing costs has diminished the hopes of many would-be home buyers, with monthly payments for newly purchased median-priced homes jumping nearly one-third in the past three years .
Analysis of NORC Poll Results
Methodology and timing of the poll
The NORC poll was conducted between April 13 and April 17, 2023, involving interviews with 1,180 adults aged 18 and older from the 50 states and the District of Columbia . The survey utilized AmeriSpeak, a probability-based panel, to randomly draw participants . Interviews were conducted in English, with an overall margin of sampling error of +/- 3.9 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level .
Key findings and statistics
The poll revealed significant shifts in Democratic support for Vice President Kamala Harris. About 8 in 10 Democrats expressed satisfaction with Harris as the potential Democratic nominee for president . This marks a substantial increase from earlier polls, where only about 4 in 10 Democrats were satisfied with Biden as the likely nominee .
Comparison with previous polls
The rapid change in sentiment underscores how swiftly the Democratic Party has united behind Harris. Her overall favorability has risen from 39% at the beginning of the summer to 46% after Biden’s withdrawal . Among Democrats, Harris’s positive view has increased from around 7 in 10 in early June to 8 in 10 in the latest poll . The shift is particularly notable among Black adults, with about 7 in 10 now expressing satisfaction with Harris as the nominee, compared to about half who were satisfied with Biden earlier in July .
Democratic Party Unity Behind Harris
Speed of consolidation
The Democratic Party swiftly rallied behind Vice President Kamala Harris following President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the 2024 race. Within 24 hours of Biden’s announcement, Harris secured endorsements from a majority of Democratic National Convention delegates . This rapid consolidation of support signaled a strong show of unity behind her presidential campaign . The party’s quick pivot to Harris was evident as she locked up endorsements from the vast majority of Democratic governors and members of Congress .
Support from party leaders
Leading Democrats voiced their support for Harris as the party’s nominee. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries announced their endorsement, emphasizing the party’s strength and unity . Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi also endorsed Harris, sending a strong signal to party members . Governors from key states, including California’s Gavin Newsom, Kentucky’s Andy Beshear, and Illinois’ JB Pritzker, threw their support behind Harris . Additionally, all 50 state Democratic Party chairs endorsed her candidacy .
Grassroots enthusiasm
The grassroots response to Harris’s candidacy was equally impressive. The campaign reported signing up 360,000 new volunteers and raising over $200 million in less than a week . In a single day, 888,000 grassroots donors made contributions, with more than 500,000 being first-time donors to the 2024 campaign cycle . This surge in grassroots energy translated into significant volunteer efforts, with 29,000 volunteers knocking on over 126,000 doors and making 768,635 phone calls in a weekend .
Harris’s Campaign Strategy Moving Forward
Balancing continuity and change
Vice President Kamala Harris faces the challenge of defending the Biden-Harris administration’s record while also charting her own course forward . She aims to take credit for accomplishments achieved under Biden while addressing issues where voters have expressed dissatisfaction . Harris has shifted her stance on some key issues since her 2020 presidential campaign, adapting to the realities of governance .
Focusing on key issues
Harris’s campaign is emphasizing several critical areas:
- Abortion rights: The battle for reproductive rights is expected to be a centerpiece of her campaign . Harris speaks more bluntly on this topic and has visited Planned Parenthood clinics .
- Immigration: While supporting Biden’s border enforcement requests, Harris is focusing on improving conditions in Central American countries to reduce migration .
- Foreign policy: Harris has taken a slightly more critical view of Israel’s handling of the Gaza conflict, emphasizing humanitarian aid and Palestinian civilian suffering .
- Economy: The campaign aims to better communicate the administration’s economic wins, addressing misconceptions about inflation .
Outreach to undecided voters
The Harris campaign believes it has “multiple pathways to victory” in seven key battleground states . It is positioned to expand support among critical voting groups, including Black, Latino, and women voters . The campaign cites polls showing Harris with a 54-point lead over Trump among Black voters and a 22-point lead among young Latinos . Harris’s vocal support for reproductive rights is expected to feature heavily in outreach to undecided voters .
Conclusion
The NORC poll results have shed light on a significant shift in the Democratic landscape. Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as a formidable candidate, gaining strong support from party members and key demographic groups. This surge in popularity, coupled with her perceived strengths in addressing critical issues, has the potential to reshape the electoral map in crucial states.
Looking ahead, Harris faces both opportunities and challenges in her bid for the presidency. While she has united the Democratic base and energized grassroots supporters, she must also address concerns about electability and economic issues. As the campaign unfolds, Harris’s ability to effectively communicate her vision and connect with undecided voters will be crucial to determine her chances of success in the upcoming election.
FAQs
1. What is the total number of Democratic Party members across the country?
Answer: The specific number of Democratic Party members nationwide is not provided in the information available.
2. Who is Kamala Harris?
Answer: Kamala D. Harris serves as the Vice President of the United States.